DemoImpact: Quantifying local demographic change

Project Background and Purpose

When a local community changes through new construction or establishment of businesses, there is simultaneously a change in the demographic composition of the area. People with different habits, preferences, and needs move in and alter the demographic profile of the place. This change has extensive socioeconomic and planning implications that are rarely analyzed systematically today.

The project aims to develop a scalable analytical model that can predict the effects of demographic changes resulting from new construction or establishment of new businesses. The model will combine demographic statistics about the Swedish population with detailed survey data drawn from Infostat's multi-year national public surveys on Swedish consumption patterns, habits, and preferences. Together, these data sources form the foundation for a model that provides accurate forecasts for urban planning.

The Innovation of the Model

The unique aspects of the model are the combination of two types of data:

1. Traditional statistics on population income, age, housing forms, and employment
2. Detailed survey data on Swedish habits, behaviors, and preferences across a wide range of areas
3. Possibility to key out on DeSO: a l statistics are at the DeSO level (Statistics Sweden) and the model's results can be applied at the same DeSO level.

Through continuous surveys, Infostat has built an extensive database where Swedish behavioral patterns are mapped in detail - from how often people work from home to how they use urban environments and what type of transportation they prefer. This information can be broken down into approximately thirty background variables such as age, education, and income. When this data is combined with demographic change patterns, conditions are created for a powerful forecasting model.

Areas of Application

1. Sudden demographic changes - when new housing, factories, or welfare facilities are established, and the area quickly gains new residents and businesses
2. Structural and long-term changes - such as urbanization, rural depopulation, changes in birth rates, and age composition

Practical Use

For urban planners, municipalities, and companies, the model provides a tool that can:

• Predict what types of services need to be expanded (preschools, elderly care, etc.) when a new residential area is established
• Forecast infrastructure needs such as charging stations, public transportation, and bicycle lanes based on the new population's preferences
• Analyze business needs and opportunities when demographics change in an area
• Predict changes in consumption patterns and demand for various services
• This allows both public and private actors to plan more accurately and minimize the risk of failed investments or shortages.

Monetary Valuation of Demographic Effects

A central innovation in the model is that we connect demographic profiles with economic effects. Through survey data on household willingness to pay in various areas, we can assign monetary values to expected changes. This makes it possible to conduct socioeconomic calculations for different types of construction and urban planning.

Scientific Method

The project will be based on the following methodological development:

1. Identification of a base platform with survey results on lifestyle, habits, and preferences
2. Development of statistical data on income, age groups, and housing forms
3. Creation of demographic type groups with a specific set of basic data
4. Development of templates in Swedish kronor for the economic effects of different type groups
5. Construction of a generic model with adjustable parameters that can be adapted to specific conditions

Expected Results and Social Benefits

The result will be a powerful tool for urban planning that can be used for a variety of scenarios - from establishing new residential areas to converting industrial premises or the effects of increased tourism. The model will be applicable to concrete assignments such as the construction of new condominiums, establishment of logistics centers, urbanization, or depopulation of smaller towns.

By improving the precision in urban planning and forecasts, economic, environmental, and social benefits can be achieved. The right services can be expanded at the right time, businesses can meet actual demand, and sustainable solutions can be implemented based on the new population's actual needs and preferences.